今天的因特网

今天的Internet已不再是计算机人员和军事部门进行科研的领域，而是变成了一个开发和使用信息资源的覆盖全球的信息海洋。

在Internet上，按从事的业务分类包括了广告公司，航空公司，农业生产公司，艺术，导航设备，书店，化工，通信，计算机，咨询，娱乐，财贸，各类商店，旅馆等等100多类，覆盖了社会生活的方方面面，构成了一个信息社会的缩影。1995年，Internet开始大规模应用在商业领域。当年，美国Internet业务的总营收额为10亿美元。
提供联机服务的供应商也从原先象America Online和Prodigy Service这样的计算机公司发展到象AT&T、MCI、Pacific Bell等通信运营公司也参加进来。由于商业应用产生的巨大需求，从调制解调器到诸如Web服务器和浏览器的Internet应用市场都分外红火。在Internet蓬勃发展的同时，其本身随着用户的需求的转移也发生着产品结构上的变化。1994年，所有的Internet软件几乎全是TCP/IP协议保，那时人们需要的是能兼容TCP/IP协议的网络体系结构；如今Internet重心已转向具体的应用，象利用WWW来做广告或进行联机贸易。Web是Internet上增长最快的应用，其用户已从1994年的不到400万激增至1995年的1000万。Web站的数目1995年到三万个。Internet已成为目前规模最大的国际性计算机网络。今天，Internet已连接60,000多个网络，正式连接86个国家，电子信箱能通达150多个国家，有480多万台主机通过它连接在一起，用户有2500多万，每天的信息流量达到万亿比特(terrabyte)以上，每月的电子信件突破10亿封。同时，Internet的应用业渗透到了各个领域，从学术研究到股票交易、从学校教育到娱乐游戏、从联机信息检索到在线居家购物等，都有长足的进步。据统计，目前在Internet的域名分布中，.com--即商业所占比例最大，为41％；.edu--（科教）已退居二线，占有30％分额。去年在Internet的成长中，商企界的成长占了其中的75％。

看看以下令商家振奋的的数据吧：

• 截至2005年6月的Internet World统计，世界上有9.28亿的因特网使用者，有75%的网络消费者表示，他们从不介意网上卖家是大公司与否（资料：TNS 2004）
• 2003年有1.6万亿美元在电子商务中成交，预计2007年达到7.1万亿美元（资料：IDC 2004）
• 去年，有1亿成人在进行网上调查后产生了购买行为，这个数字接近于通过目录、直邮广告和电话直销购买的总和。
• 运用因特网的小型商家比不用的增长要快46%
• 有超过72.4万的人承认ebay是他们主要的或第二收入来源。另有150万的人说他们通过在ebay销售来增加收入。（根据2005年7月ACNielsen的调查报告）
• 据统计，富有的消费者更喜欢在网上购物。34%的受访者说他们在去年进行了网上购物，而50%的富裕受访者和57%的极富裕受访者使用了电子商务。
• 2006年，1.36亿新人第一次加入了网络人口大军，也就是说每分钟有259个新的网络使用者，1小时就有超过1.5万的新用户！

因特网是怎样开始的

在1969年的时候，“信息高速公路”这个名词还无人知晓。而同一年，人类登上了月球，美国见证了横贯大陆的铁路干线的百年庆典。正是这一年，美国国防部高级研究计划署（ARPA-Advanced Research Project Agency）资助的工程师和科学家们开发出了尚未公布于众的ARPAnet。

ARPAnet的主导思想是把分布于不同距离的计算机实时共享，让处于不同计算机终端的人们可以共享一个大型主机。通常,要把程序从一个计算机传输到另一个，必须通过穿孔卡片或胶带之类的媒介。当时没有象联邦快递的那样的快速通路，可以在一夜之间把程序从比如说，麻省理工发送到加州科技。

刚开始，一些人认为，要建立一个合理的计算机体系，必需要有一个庞大的中央计算机来供给远程客户终端。然而，计划署人员证明了只要用一个计算机网络，就可以象电话网络一样，不需要依靠一个单一的链接。

得以让一台计算机远程联系另一台的技术之一是一个称为“信息包转换”的电讯方法。在信息包转换中，一个信息被拆分成不同的电子信息小包，每一个都被标注上接收者的地址，然后在目的地组合起来。

到了1969年9月，这个系统已经准备好接受测试，一个基于加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校和史坦福研究院计算机之间的链接被建成。到1971年，有超过20个站点或网点连接入了网络。一年以后，第一个电子邮件信息被发出。

1983年，该网络将军用和民用功能分开，由此创立了Milnet。1986年，美国国家科学基金网NSFnet建成。1988年，ARPAnet正式功成身退，因特网（Internet）这个名称被启用。

从一开始，网络的创始者们就知道，他们在技术上的进步比起社会意义来说是微小的。他们的主要贡献更多地体现在了和大学有关的，以及在非商业和无规则状况中的一种无序而非正式的人类关系。从某种意义上来说，整个因特网体现出了第一批使用者的价值观。在那个计算机还被真空管子充斥着的时代，网络计划署的人们已经明白，这些机器将不仅仅是计算机设备——他们注定会成为历史上最强大的沟通工具！

Made in China

(Journalist Kristen Le Mesurier recently visited Shanghai to study supply chains. She writes exclusively for Mysmallbusiness on how SMEs can recognise and avoid the pitfalls when dealing with the world's largest manufacturer. )

Just about everyone has heard a horror story about importing goods from China.
Between June and September last year, three of the world's largest toy manufacturers, including Mattel and Fisher-Price, were forced to recall more than 20 million toys worldwide because the toys' paint was found to contain lead.

While these high-profile incidents are unlikely to stop the thousands of business owners looking to shift manufacturing offshore, they should serve as a clear warning: nothing short of an intricate strategy is needed to make manufacturing in China a success.

The experts warn that challenges arise at every stage in the sourcing process. Reputable manufacturers are hard to find. Some factories promise more than they can deliver, some ignore the order specifications altogether, and others simply pocket the cash without producing a product.

Trading companies are known to masquerade as manufacturers; product regulations are often misinterpreted or not followed; quality needs to be monitored during the production process and tested before the goods are shipped; contracts with dispute resolution clauses need to be negotiated; and delays are common at any stage in the process.
On top of all of this, when things go wrong there are few roads to recourse. Once container loads of goods arrive in Australia it becomes too expensive to send them back. The alternative, pursuing Chinese manufacturers through the courts, is time consuming, expensive, and hit and miss.
The bottom line, according to the experts, is that all of these variables must be controlled. Chinese manufacturers must be micromanaged.

Yet here is the frightening reality: few business owners follow any kind of strategy when outsourcing to China.
Lisa Goodhand, trade consultant and director of AJL Global, says the cost savings give business owners tunnel vision.

''Or worse than that, business owners import blindly. They figure that the different culture, the different laws, the work that needs to go in to building maintaining a relationship with a manufacturer, is all too hard. The goods are so cheap they figure they'll risk it. They mentally prepare to throw their money to the wall,'' Goodhand says.

No one knows this better than John Hunt, who sits on the Australia China Business Council's committee in Queensland, and runs Mox Group, an industrial hardware and software provider with more than 400 employees.
He says that alongside wilful blindness, many business owners who come to the ACBC for advice have been arrogant in their dealings with Chinese manufacturers.
''The dictator approach runs something like this: 'We know exactly what we want and we're going to tell you how it needs to be done.' That attitude is hardly conducive to a long term relationship,'' Hunt says.

DealsDirect.com.au, a fast-growing online retailer with revenue of about $40 million in 2006-07, has been buying direct from Chinese manufacturers since 2005.
The founders, Michael Rosenbaum and Paul Greenberg, started out as most Australian business owners do - attending trade fairs and using a local agent.
But the big profits were out of reach while middle men carved out commissions.
''The future of retail is selling direct from the manufacturer in China to the customer's front door,'' Greenberg says.
They spent the first few months of 2005 testing their business model with trading companies (these are similar to wholesalers in Australia).
''It's important to get comfortable before committing to sourcing on your own,'' Greenberg says.
Their next step was to hire a Shanghainese buyer that had spent the previous decade working with Go-Lo - the pioneers of discount retailing in Australia - and open a small office in Shanghai.
Their representative then started sorting through the factories that presented at trade fairs and building relationships with those that had a strong reputation.
''Now that we've been in China for a few years manufacturers will travel to us [in Shanghai] and line up in the passage way to show us their wares,'' Greenberg says.

Their Shanghai representative now runs an office of eight. He receives a commission for each product he sources himself, and he is paid a fee for maintaining close relationships with each of the factories DealsDirect buy from.
A big part of his job is quality control. He gives factories 3-4 hours out of Shanghai spot checks and arranges for each container load to be randomly sampled before it leaves China's ports. If faults are found the goods are sent back to the factory.
''We do visit factories and I've never seen sweatshops. We wouldn't deal with sweatshops. We go to professional factories that are impressive by any standards. Quality is important so the goods can't be manufactured in a backyard,'' Greenberg says.
Faulty products do occasionally reach Australian customers, but Greenberg says he has never dealt with a manufacturer that refuses to send replacements in a later shipment.
''If you go in there with the right attitude and work with courtesy you're not going to be left in the lurch. In any case, the Chinese are looking for repeat business. They don't want to sell one container, they want to sell 101 and more,'' Greenberg says.

For business owners without the resources to hire a Chinese representative, the experts stress the importance of researching the manufacturer you plan to buy from.
''Especially with business to business portals like Ali Baba, it can be difficult to establish the true nature of the person holding themselves out as the manufacturer,'' Goodhand says.
Goodhand outlines a common scenario. ''You strike up communication with someone who claims to be a manufacturer, you're sent a sample and asked whether you like it. If you like it, you're asked to transfer the money to a bank account and you're told the goods will arrive soon. After waiting patiently, nothing arrives.
''But the only record you have of the contract of sale is a bank account number and a hotmail address. Impossible to track,'' Goodhand says.
The importance of local knowledge and an understanding of business culture cannot be underestimated.
Gaffs are often made by Australian business owners when they jump on a plane to check out the Chinese manufacturer and turn up in board shorts and thongs while claiming loudly that they are the manufacturer's next biggest client.

''Chinese businessmen would never send their CEO to do the groundwork straight away so it sends the signal that you're not nearly as important as you present,'' Goodham says.
If you're small, talk yourself up, says Austrade's senior trade commissioner in China, Peter Osborne.
''Talk about who you sell to, who your buyers are. Spruik your big clients. And make sure you meet the Chinese equivalent of yourself in the factory. If you're the chief executive but you've never met your counterpart, they're not taking you seriously,'' Osborne says.
One lesson often painfully learned by Australian business owners is that every order placed has to be extremely clear and detailed.

Emails between DealsDirect staff and Chinese manufacturers are in dot points to minimise the risk of miscommunication.
''Ordering whatever you've seen in a picture, or even ordering the sample, will get you into trouble. You need to spell out exactly what you want. If you want the blue MP3 player you've got to specify the exact colour, size, and what accessories, if any, you expect to be included,'' Goodhand says.

Negotiating a contract with each manufacturer is important. It forces each party to settle on procedures that kick in when something goes wrong. It is also an opportunity for the Australian business owner to gain respect and build a relationship with the manufacturer.

''The Chinese are likely to say yes to any order. They want to get their products out of the country. But they'll work out the other party's weaknesses very quickly.
''If in your eyes you don't offer long term potential they will take advantage of whatever short term opportunity you represent. But if you can convince them that you're serious and you're the right company to work with, long term benefits will flow,'' Hunt says.

(Source: Smh)

Can you speak American?

Australian businesspeople operating in American markets know this all too well – they do not speak English in the 50 States. They speak American. And they will ask you if you do too.

This is not just parochialism in action – there is a grain of truth to it. Oscar Wilde knew this when he remarked, “We really have everything in common with America nowadays except, of course, language” – and 120 years later, the language of Corporate America presents even more of a communication challenge than you might expect.

The trap for young players is to assume that a lifetime of watching American TV is adequate preparation. It is not.

Sure, you may be comfortable translating ‘economy’ to ‘coach’, ‘lift’ to ‘elevator’ and ‘jumper’ to ‘sweater’. But it’s the first ‘reaching out’ that gets you. To the Australian ear it sounds a little more dramatic than ‘contacting’ someone should really be. This is followed closely by ‘relevancy’ and ‘normalcy’, which one assumes at first to be Bush-style ‘mis-speaks’. ‘Planning ahead’ becomes ‘being planful’, and ‘healthy’ follows suit as ‘healthful’.

If you’re brave enough to speak, you’ll find your reference to meeting ‘fortnightly’ will be met with confused expressions, a rhetorical question like “have we just gone back to mediaeval times?” and some advice to use ‘bi-weekly’ in future.

At all times avoid mentioning your ‘diary’ – no one wants to hear about your personal musings or indeed the prospect of a memoir. Talk about ‘schedules’ and ‘calendars’, and ‘sked’ instead of ‘diarise’.

When you hear that you’ve ‘lucked out’ you can rest assured that you have not missed out but are in fact, counter-intuitively, in luck.

Expect to hear expressions like ‘quarterbacking the project’ (shepherding it every step of the way), ‘hit the cover off the ball / knock the ball out of the park’ (knock them for six), ‘we’ll take care of the blocking and tackling’ (the basics, the everyday stuff), ‘clipping coupons’ (not adding any value), ‘from the get-go’ (from the very beginning) and – my personal favorite – ‘off the reservation’ (off-message, lost the plot).

Invited to go on a boondoggle? That’s a junket. A catywumpus? A mess, a debacle. Circle back? Get back to you. Soup to nuts? End-to-end my friend, because apparently meals start with soup and end with nuts. Somewhere. In America.

When you’re ready to pull your hair out over all this, you can safely express this as ‘going third rail’ – a wonderfully New York City expression that refers to the third rail on subway tracks, which electrocutes on contact.

Of course, I’m sure an American in Australia would find its equivalent, ‘going berko’, just as indecipherable.

Advil*, anyone?
* American Panadol

(Source: Smh)

Stepping into China

In Shanghai, it's easy to stare transfixed at the streams of shoppers trampling over half-finished roads to get to the big, new shopping centres. Open 14 hours a day, longer on weekends, these shopping centres are hives of activity.
But this buzz is a double-edged sword for Australian exporters. It means big opportunities, but it also means fierce competition as the world's brands clamour for a slice of the burgeoning market.
Long and involved negotiations, enmeshed and often conflicting regulations at provincial and local levels, heavy bureaucracies, local partners that may or may not be trustworthy - these are just some of the challenges that threaten to trip most small businesses.
Toss in the market entry strategy - whether or not to open a representative office, sign away an exclusive distribution licence, form a joint venture, or go the whole way and set up a wholly-owned foreign enterprise - and watch what started out looking like a money spinner morph in to a nightmare.
It took one Australian environmental consultancy, now owned by GHD, almost 10 years to crack China.
"It was quite a number of years before we could say, 'We're making a dollar out of here,'" says Peter Wood, founder of the business and now general manager of GHD's operations in China.
More Australian businesses than ever before want to sell to China. The proportion of small businesses exporting to China has doubled in the last two years, according to recent data compiled by Sensis and Austrade, and more than 50 per cent of Australian exporters have China tagged as their biggest growth market in the next twelve months, according to the latest Austrade and DHL export barometer.
With a large and rapidly urbanising population, China's demographics are a big drawcard. By 2020, 55 per cent of Chinese households will have climbed into the ranks of the middle class, according to the Policy Research Office of the Community Party of China Central Committee. Right now, just 5 per cent of households are middle class.

Demand for branded goods and services, hot new technology, infrastructure, and finance is expected to grow with these annual incomes. Based on similar projections, AC Nielson in its report titled China Trend Watch 2007 estimates that manufacturers and retailers have an untapped market of about 850 billion RMB ahead of them.
It's not just coal and resources that Australians are good at selling to the Chinese. Food and beverage exporters have doubled their shelf space in the last five years, and products and services trading on Australia's clean and green image such as organic products, body care, fitness training are in high demand, according to Austrade's senior trade commissioner in China, Peter Osborne.
With China expected to be home to half of the world's building construction between now and 2020, there is also an unprecedented appetite for green technology. Subsidies offered by the Chinese government in the lead up to the Beijing Olympics and mandatory energy reduction targets are driving demand. "When you've got a country that has 16 of the most polluted cities in the world incentives like those will only grow," Osborne says.
Business owners who think that turning up with some expertise or a container load of goods is enough to make a sale, think again. Consumers are brand conscious and spoilt for choice. And as customers or partners, Chinese businesses want to know you are there for the long term before they commit to doing business with you.
"In Australia, if you tender a bid and it is clearly the best there's a good chance you'll get that contract. In China, if you haven't developed a strong personal relationship with the organisation it really wouldn't matter what your proposal was like. From their perspective you're too risky. If they don't trust you, you won't win the work," Wood says.
The first challenge for exporters to nut out is how to enter the market. There are four options: open a representative office, cut a deal with an agent or distributor, form a partnership or joint venture, or set up a wholly owned foreign enterprise (WOFE).
The majority of Australian exporters start small by selling via an agent or distributor. Online trade portals such as Ali Baba may be the easiest way to make contact with potential agents, distributors, or retailers, but the ease belies many challenges.

It's important to research distributors or agents to make sure they will take your product, which is often one of tens of products they are trying to sell, seriously.
Hotch-potch networks of agents and distributors can give rise to disputes regarding who has the exclusive right to sell what, where.
And it can be difficult to assess whether or not agents have the muscle to get the shelf space they promise.
Partnerships or joint ventures, while requiring investment and long-term commitment, can be the best of both worlds because partners offer local knowledge of the market and contacts with key decision makers in government or retail. Rather than handing agents or distributors a fixed fee, joint venture partners share in the profits.
But choosing a suitable joint venture partner takes time. Wood met with about 25 prospective partners over two years before settling on one in Wuhan. "The decision was really based on countless discussions, meetings, and when it came down to it, gut feel about the partners and how well we could work with them," Wood says.
Austrade and a Chinese born and educated engineer he had hired in Australia ended up helping him sift through the potential partners. "If you can develop strong personal relationships there's a good chance you will succeed. If you can't or don't there's a good chance you won't," Wood says.
Going one step further and setting up a wholly-owned foreign entity means skipping the challenges that arise with joint venture relationships.
Legislative reform in the last five years has made the registration process simple and easy, but experts warn this is the most involved business structure - in time, effort and money.
Richie Guo, who runs Business Strategies International's China consultancy, advises his clients to have the paperwork ready to submit to China's Ministry of Commerce as early as possible. "China is so fast moving, if you're an exporter that spots an opportunity you've got to be ready to move then, at that moment. Gaps in the market disappear so quickly," Guo says.
A mistake Guo sees business owners make is leaving the debate about business structure to the last minute. By the time the business entity and bank accounts are sorted in China, for example, the opportunity has been snatched by someone else.
China's deference to hierarchy throws many Australian exporters. Multiple people will work on a single transaction and there can be a long ladder to climb to get to the main decision makers.
Wood warns that formal meetings with six Chinese negotiators does not necessarily mean that the Chinese party is serious about working through the tough issues.
"The real negotiation rarely happens around a table with lots of people. If there are half a dozen negotiators that meeting is all about process and formality. Serious negotiations are always done one-on-one, behind closed doors, between the key decision makers on both sides," Wood says.
"You do need to get the support of the people doing the negotiating, though. They have the key decision maker's ear," Wood says.
And beware of Chinese business culture. Guo recounts a meeting between one of his Australian clients and a Chinese business owner. His client was looking to acquire the Chinese business and at the first meeting the Australian asked within minutes whether or not the Chinese business was turning a profit.
"What a disaster. Those sorts of questions, if they can ever be asked, require a relationship of trust and mutual respect. To the Chinese, that question was rude and arrogant," Guo says.

(Source: Smh)

Biggest slump

Almost all markets are down today.
Shanghai, over 7%'s slump.
Australia, worst fall since WII.

I feel it might be a beginning of a bear market for Aust. and other western countries.
But not for China.

In the past, China was always the one escape from the effect of US. Why not again this time? Sounds to me like someone (might be the fund companies) purposely gave out some negative information...

It's said US would lower the interest rate 75bp tonight.

Let's wait and see.

FX investment = Gambling

Investing in FX market = Gambling

That's the formula I concluded after my own experience.

People can always find experts advice/tips/forcasting/etc on all kind of media. Mysterious Charts are tools to convince new followers that history will become reality again. I don't doubt many people have got buckets of gold in FX market, BUT I can also say without doubts that far more people have lost even more money there.

我说这些不是因为吃不到葡萄就说葡萄是酸的。是的，继几年前输掉万多元澳币在外汇上之后，J昨天的“小试牛刀”再次以失败告终——被强制清盘了。唯一侥幸的是，这次只动用了不到千元的资金。
这次所谓投资的起因是J收到了投资公司的一条“友情”提示，说澳元对美元和日元会有一波很不错的中期行情，用的是坚定不移的口气——这是以前从来没发生过的事——于是推论：这个行情会十拿九稳。J于是在澳洲加息25点已成定局之后，在当时的高位买AUD/JPY。但操作的时候一不小心把JPY50000做成了AUD50000。而保证金只放了AUD500......事实上，在8个小时之前这笔失误的投资还赚了700多澳元。但转眼之间，澳元急挫200多点，而加保证金已来不及，于是被强迫清仓。48小时不到损失了一台PS2。当然比起两年前的一夜间擦掉一万多的经历，我的心脏承受力已经好得多了。

外汇的张跌最可怕的地方是它的张跌是没有底的（当然理论上最多跌到0)，而且用保证金以小博大的可能性也把人性贪婪的一面放大到无限。如果这次做错之后，盘面没有涨得那么快的话，可能早就了结掉来个落袋为安了。

总结：要么不做，做了一定要自律——设好止损和止赢！